30 de abril: falece Antonio Augusto Lisboa Miranda

Faleceu, nesta quinta-feira, dia 30 de abril de 2015, em São Paulo, o Dr. Antonio Augusto Lisboa Miranda em consequência de uma hemorragia cerebral. O enterro será realizado no dia 1º de maio às 13 horas no Cemitério da Consolação.

giaculatoria del giorno

 

 

Madre di Dio e Madre nostra, se cadiamo, aiutaci a ritornare a Gesù con il sacramento del perdono e della gioia.

The Future of World Religions: Population Growth Projections, 2010-2050

Why Muslims Are Rising Fastest and the Unaffiliated Are Shrinking as a Share of the World’s Population

The religious profile of the world is rapidly changing, driven primarily by differences in fertility rates and the size of youth populations among the world’s major religions, as well as by people switching faiths. Over the next four decades, Christians will remain the largest religious group, but Islam will grow faster than any other major religion. If current trends continue, by 2050 …

◾The number of Muslims will nearly equal the number of Christians around the world.

◾Atheists, agnostics and other people who do not affiliate with any religion – though increasing in countries such as the United States and at France – will make up a declining share of the world’s total population.

◾The global Buddhist population will be about the same size it was in 2010, while the Hindu and Jewish populations will be larger than they are today.

◾In Europe, Muslims will make up 10% of the overall population.

◾India will retain a Hindu majority but also will have the largest Muslim population of any country in the world, surpassing Indonesia.

◾In the United States, Christians will decline from more than three-quarters of the population in 2010 to two-thirds in 2050, and Judaism will no longer be the largest non-Christian religion. Muslims will be more numerous in the U.S. than people who identify as Jewish on the basis of religion.

◾Four out of every 10 Christians in the world will live in sub-Saharan Africa.

These are among the global religious trends highlighted in new demographic projections by the Pew Research Center. The projections take into account the current size and geographic distribution of the world’s major religions, age differences, fertility and mortality rates, international migration and patterns in conversion.

Projected Change in Global Population

As of 2010, Christianity was by far the world’s largest religion, with an estimated 2.2 billion adherents, nearly a third (31%) of all 6.9 billion people on Earth. Islam was second, with 1.6 billion adherents, or 23% of the global population.

Islam Growing FastestIf current demographic trends continue, however, Islam will nearly catch up by the middle of the 21st century. Between 2010 and 2050, the world’s total population is expected to rise to 9.3 billion, a 35% increase. Over that same period, Muslims – a comparatively youthful population with high fertility rates – are projected to increase by 73%. The number of Christians also is projected to rise, but more slowly, at about the same rate (35%) as the global population overall.

As a result, according to the Pew Research projections, by 2050 there will be near parity between Muslims (2.8 billion, or 30% of the population) and Christians (2.9 billion, or 31%), possibly for the first time in history.

With the exception of Buddhists, all of the world’s major religious groups are poised for at least some growth in absolute numbers in the coming decades. The global Buddhist population is expected to be fairly stable because of low fertility rates and aging populations in countries such as China, Thailand and Japan.

Worldwide, the Hindu population is projected to rise by 34%, from a little over 1 billion to nearly 1.4 billion, roughly keeping pace with overall population growth. Jews, the smallest religious group for which separate projections were made, are expected to grow 16%, from a little less than 14 million in 2010 to 16.1 million worldwide in 2050.

Size and Projected Growth of Major Religious Groups

Adherents of various folk religions – including African traditional religions, Chinese folk religions, Native American religions and Australian aboriginal religions – are projected to increase by 11%, from 405 million to nearly 450 million.

And all other religions combined – an umbrella category that includes Baha’is, Jains, Sikhs, Taoists and many smaller faiths – are projected to increase 6%, from a total of approximately 58 million to more than 61 million over the same period.3

While growing in absolute size, however, folk religions, Judaism and “other religions” (the umbrella category considered as a whole) will not keep pace with global population growth. Each of these groups is projected to make up a smaller percentage of the world’s population in 2050 than it did in 2010.

Projected Change in the Unaffiliated Population, 2010-2050

Similarly, the religiously unaffiliated population is projected to shrink as a percentage of the global population, even though it will increase in absolute number. In 2010, censuses and surveys indicate, there were about 1.1 billion atheists, agnostics and people who do not identify with any particular religion. By 2050, the unaffiliated population is expected to exceed 1.2 billion. But, as a share of all the people in the world, those with no religious affiliation are projected to decline from 16% in 2010 to 13% by the middle of this century.

At the same time, however, the unaffiliated are expected to continue to increase as a share of the population in much of Europe and North America. In the United States, for example, the unaffiliated are projected to grow from an estimated 16% of the total population (including children) in 2010 to 26% in 2050.

As the example of the unaffiliated shows, there will be vivid geographic differences in patterns of religious growth in the coming decades. One of the main determinants of that future growth is where each group is geographically concentrated today. Religions with many adherents in developing countries – where birth rates are high, and infant mortality rates generally have been falling – are likely to grow quickly. Much of the worldwide growth of Islam and Christianity, for example, is expected to take place in sub-Saharan Africa. Today’s religiously unaffiliated population, by contrast, is heavily concentrated in places with low fertility and aging populations, such as Europe, North America, China and Japan.

Total Fertility Rate by Religion, 2010-2015

Globally, Muslims have the highest fertility rate, an average of 3.1 children per woman – well above replacement level (2.1), the minimum typically needed to maintain a stable population. Christians are second, at 2.7 children per woman. Hindu fertility (2.4) is similar to the global average (2.5). Worldwide, Jewish fertility (2.3 children per woman) also is above replacement level. All the other groups have fertility levels too low to sustain their populations: folk religions (1.8 children per woman), other religions (1.7), the unaffiliated (1.7) and Buddhists (1.6).

Age Distribution of Religious Groups, 2010

Another important determinant of growth is the current age distribution of each religious group – whether its adherents are predominantly young, with their prime childbearing years still ahead, or older and largely past their childbearing years.

In 2010, more than a quarter of the world’s total population (27%) was under the age of 15. But an even higher percentage of Muslims (34%) and Hindus (30%) were younger than 15, while the share of Christians under 15 matched the global average (27%). These bulging youth populations are among the reasons that Muslims are projected to grow faster than the world’s overall population and that Hindus and Christians are projected to roughly keep pace with worldwide population growth.

All the remaining groups have smaller-than-average youth populations, and many of them have disproportionately large numbers of adherents over the age of 59. For example, 11% of the world’s population was at least 60 years old in 2010. But fully 20% of Jews around the world are 60 or older, as are 15% of Buddhists, 14% of Christians, 14% of adherents of other religions (taken as a whole), 13% of the unaffiliated and 11% of adherents of folk religions. By contrast, just 7% of Muslims and 8% of Hindus are in this oldest age category.

Projected Cumulative Change Due to Religious Switching, 2010-2050

In addition to fertility rates and age distributions, religious switching is likely to play a role in the growth of religious groups. But conversion patterns are complex and varied. In some countries, it is fairly common for adults to leave their childhood religion and switch to another faith. In others, changes in religious identity are rare, legally cumbersome or even illegal.

The Pew Research Center projections attempt to incorporate patterns in religious switching in 70 countries where surveys provide information on the number of people who say they no longer belong to the religious group in which they were raised. In the projection model, all directions of switching are possible, and they may be partially offsetting. In the United States, for example, surveys find that some people who were raised with no religious affiliation have switched to become Christians, while some who grew up as Christians have switched to become unaffiliated. These types of patterns are projected to continue as future generations come of age. (For more details on how and where switching was modeled, see the Methodology. For alternative growth scenarios involving either switching in additional countries or no switching at all, see Chapter 1.)

Over the coming decades, Christians are expected to experience the largest net losses from switching. Globally, about 40 million people are projected to switch into Christianity, while 106 million are projected to leave, with most joining the ranks of the religiously unaffiliated. (See chart above.)

Impact of Migration on Population Projections, by RegionAll told, the unaffiliated are expected to add 97 million people and lose 36 million via switching, for a net gain of 61 million by 2050. Modest net gains through switching also are expected for Muslims (3 million), adherents of folk religions (3 million) and members of other religions (2 million). Jews are expected to experience a net loss of about 300,000 people due to switching, while Buddhists are expected to lose nearly 3 million.

International migration is another factor that will influence the projected size of religious groups in various regions and countries.

Forecasting future migration patterns is difficult, because migration is often linked to government policies and international events that can change quickly. For this reason, many population projections do not include migration in their models. But working with researchers at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Laxenburg, Austria, the Pew Research Center has developed an innovative way of using data on past migration patterns to estimate the religious composition of migrant flows in the decades ahead. (For details on how the projections were made, see Chapter 1.)

The impact of migration can be seen in the examples shown in the graph at the right, which compares projection scenarios with and without migration in the regions where it will have the greatest impact. In Europe, for instance, the Muslim share of the population is expected to increase from 5.9% in 2010 to 10.2% in 2050 when migration is taken into account along with other demographic factors that are driving population change, such as fertility rates and age. Without migration, the Muslim share of Europe’s population in 2050 is projected to be nearly two percentage points lower (8.4%). In North America, the Hindu share of the population is expected to nearly double in the decades ahead, from 0.7% in 2010 to 1.3% in 2050, when migration is included in the projection models. Without migration, the Hindu share of the region’s population would remain about the same (0.8%).

In the Middle East and North Africa, the continued migration of Christians into the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates) is expected to offset the exodus of Christians from other countries in the region.7 If migration were not factored into the 2050 projections, the estimated Christian share of the region’s population would drop below 3%. With migration factored in, however, the estimated Christian share is expected to be just above 3% (down from nearly 4% in 2010).

Beyond the Year 2050

Long-Term Projections of Christian and Muslim Shares of World’s Population

This report describes how the global religious landscape would change if current demographic trends continue. With each passing year, however, there is a chance that unforeseen events – war, famine, disease, technological innovation, political upheaval, etc. – will alter the size of one religious group or another. Owing to the difficulty of peering more than a few decades into the future, the projections stop at 2050.

Readers may wonder, though, what would happen to the population trajectories highlighted in this report if they were projected into the second half of this century. Given the rapid projected increase from 2010 to 2050 in the Muslim share of the world’s population, would Muslims eventually outnumber Christians? And, if so, when?

The answer depends on continuation of the trends described in Chapter 1. If the main projection model is extended beyond 2050, the Muslim share of the world’s population would equal the Christian share, at roughly 32% each, around 2070. After that, the number of Muslims would exceed the number of Christians, but both religious groups would grow, roughly in tandem, as shown in the graph above. By the year 2100, about 1% more of the world’s population would be Muslim (35%) than Christian (34%).

The projected growth of Muslims and Christians would be driven largely by the continued expansion of Africa’s population. Due to the heavy concentration of Christians and Muslims in this high-fertility region, both groups would increase as a percentage of the global population. Combined, the world’s two largest religious groups would make up more than two-thirds of the global population in 2100 (69%), up from 61% in 2050 and 55% in 2010.

It bears repeating, however, that many factors could alter these trajectories. For example, if a large share of China’s population were to switch to Christianity (as discussed in this sidebar), that shift alone could bolster Christianity’s current position as the world’s most populous religion. Or if disaffiliation were to become common in countries with large Muslim populations – as it is now in some countries with large Christian populations – that trend could slow or reverse the increase in Muslim numbers.

Projected Annual Growth Rate of Country Populations, 2010-2050

Regional and Country-Level Projections

In addition to making projections at the global level, this report projects religious change in 198 countries and territories with at least 100,000 people as of 2010, covering 99.9% of the world’s population. Population estimates for an additional 36 countries and territories are included in regional and global totals throughout the report. The report also divides the world into six major regions and looks at how each region’s religious composition is likely to change from 2010 to 2050, assuming that current patterns in migration and other demographic trends continue.8

Due largely to high fertility, sub-Saharan Africa is projected to experience the fastest overall growth, rising from 12% of the world’s population in 2010 to about 20% in 2050. The Middle East-North Africa region also is expected to grow faster than the world as a whole, edging up from 5% of the global population in 2010 to 6% in 2050. Ongoing growth in both regions will fuel global increases in the Muslim population. In addition, sub-Saharan Africa’s Christian population is expected to double, from 517 million in 2010 to 1.1 billion in 2050. The share of the world’s Christians living in sub-Saharan Africa will rise from 24% in 2010 to 38% in 2050.

Meanwhile, the Asia-Pacific region is expected to have a declining share of the world’s population (53% in 2050, compared with 59% in 2010). This will be reflected in the slower growth of religions heavily concentrated in the region, including Buddhism and Chinese folk religions, as well as slower growth of Asia’s large unaffiliated population. One exception is Hindus, who are overwhelmingly concentrated in India, where the population is younger and fertility rates are higher than in China or Japan. As previously mentioned, Hindus are projected to roughly keep pace with global population growth. India’s large Muslim population also is poised for rapid growth. Although India will continue to have a Hindu majority, by 2050 it is projected to have the world’s largest Muslim population, surpassing Indonesia.

The remaining geographic regions also will contain declining shares of the world’s population: Europe is projected to go from 11% to 8%, Latin American and the Caribbean from 9% to 8%, and North America from 5% to a little less than 5%.

Europe is the only region where the total population is projected to decline. Europe’s Christian population is expected to shrink by about 100 million people in the coming decades, dropping from 553 million to 454 million. While Christians will remain the largest religious group in Europe, they are projected to drop from three-quarters of the population to less than two-thirds. By 2050, nearly a quarter of Europeans (23%) are expected to have no religious affiliation, and Muslims will make up about 10% of the region’s population, up from 5.9% in 2010. Over the same period, the number of Hindus in Europe is expected to roughly double, from a little under 1.4 million (0.2% of Europe’s population) to nearly 2.7 million (o.4%), mainly as a result of immigration. Buddhists appear headed for similarly rapid growth in Europe – a projected rise from 1.4 million to 2.5 million.

Religious Composition of the United States, 2010-2050In North America, Muslims and followers of “other religions” are the fastest-growing religious groups. In the United States, for example, the share of the population that belongs to other religions is projected to more than double – albeit from a very small base – rising from 0.6% to 1.5%.9 Christians are projected to decline from 78% of the U.S. population in 2010 to 66% in 2050, while the unaffiliated are expected to rise from 16% to 26%. And by the middle of the 21st century, the United States is likely to have more Muslims (2.1% of the population) than people who identify with the Jewish faith (1.4%).10

In Latin America and the Caribbean, Christians will remain the largest religious group, making up 89% of the population in 2050, down slightly from 90% in 2010. Latin America’s religiously unaffiliated population is projected to grow both in absolute number and percentage terms, rising from about 45 million people (8%) in 2010 to 65 million (9%) in 2050.11

Changing Religious Majorities

Several countries are projected to have a different religious majority in 2050 than they did in 2010. The number of countries with Christian majorities is expected to decline from 159 to 151, as Christians are projected to drop below 50% of the population in Australia, Benin, Bosnia-Herzegovina, France, the Netherlands, New Zealand, the Republic of Macedonia and the United Kingdom.

Countries That Will No Longer Have a Christian Majority in 2050

Muslims in 2050 are expected to make up more than 50% of the population in 51 countries, two more than in 2010, as both the Republic of Macedonia and Nigeria are projected to gain Muslim majorities. But Nigeria also will continue to have a very large Christian population. Indeed, Nigeria is projected to have the third-largest Christian population in the world by 2050, after the United States and Brazil.

As of 2050, the largest religious group in France, New Zealand and the Netherlands is expected to be the unaffiliated.

About These Projections

While many people have offered predictions about the future of religion, these are the first formal demographic projections using data on age, fertility, mortality, migration and religious switching for multiple religious groups around the world. Demographers at the Pew Research Center in Washington, D.C., and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in Laxenburg, Austria, gathered the input data from more than 2,500 censuses, surveys and population registers, an effort that has taken six years and will continue.

The projections cover eight major groups: Buddhists, Christians, Hindus, Jews, Muslims, adherents of folk religions, adherents of other religions and the unaffiliated (see Appendix C: Defining the Religious Groups). Because censuses and surveys in many countries do not provide information on religious subgroups – such as Sunni and Shia Muslims or Catholic, Protestant and Orthodox Christians – the projections are for each religious group as a whole. Data on subgroups of the unaffiliated are also unavailable in many countries. As a result, separate projections are not possible for atheists or agnostics.

The projection model was developed in collaboration with researchers in the Age and Cohort Change Project at IIASA, who are world leaders in population projections methodology. The model uses an advanced version of the cohort-component method typically employed by demographers to forecast population growth. It starts with a population of baseline age groups, or cohorts, divided by sex and religion. Each cohort is projected into the future by adding likely gains (immigrants and people switching in) and by subtracting likely losses (deaths, emigrants and people switching out) year by year. The youngest cohorts, ages 0-4, are created by applying age-specific fertility rates to each female cohort in the childbearing years (ages 15-49), with children inheriting the mother’s religion. For more details, see the Methodology.12

In the process of gathering input data and developing the projection model, the Pew Research Center previously published reports on the current size and geographic distribution of major religious groups, including Muslims (2009), Christians (2011) and several other faiths (2012). An initial set of projections for one religious group, Muslims, was published in 2011, although it did not attempt to take religious switching into account.

Some social theorists have suggested that as countries develop economically, more of their inhabitants will move away from religious affiliation. While that has been the general experience in some parts of the world, notably Europe, it is not yet clear whether it is a universal pattern.13 In any case, the projections in this report are not based on theories about economic development leading to secularization.

Rather, the projections extend the recently observed patterns of religious switching in all countries for which sufficient data are available (70 countries in all). In addition, the projections reflect the United Nations’ expectation that in countries with high fertility rates, those rates gradually will decline in coming decades, alongside rising female educational attainment. And the projections assume that people gradually are living longer in most countries. These and other key input data and assumptions are explained in detail in Chapter 1 and the Methodology (Appendix A).

Since religious change has never previously been projected on this scale, some cautionary words are in order. Population projections are estimates built on current population data and assumptions about demographic trends, such as declining birth rates and rising life expectancies in particular countries. The projections are what will occur if the current data are accurate and current trends continue. But many events – scientific discoveries, armed conflicts, social movements, political upheavals, natural disasters and changing economic conditions, to name just a few – can shift demographic trends in unforeseen ways. That is why the projections are limited to a 40-year time frame, and subsequent chapters of this report try to give a sense of how much difference it could make if key assumptions were different.

For example, China’s 1.3 billion people (as of 2010) loom very large in global trends. At present, about 5% of China’s population is estimated to be Christian, and more than 50% is religiously unaffiliated. Because reliable figures on religious switching in China are not available, the projections do not contain any forecast for conversions in the world’s most populous country. But if Christianity expands in China in the decades to come – as some experts predict – then by 2050, the global numbers of Christians may be higher than projected, and the decline in the percentage of the world’s population that is religiously unaffiliated may be even sharper. (For more details on the possible impact of religious switching in China, see Chapter 1.)

Finally, readers should bear in mind that within every major religious group, there is a spectrum of belief and practice. The projections are based on the number of people who self-identify with each religious group, regardless of their level of observance. What it means to be Christian, Muslim, Hindu, Buddhist, Jewish or a member of any other faith may vary from person to person, country to country, and decade to decade.

Acknowledgements

These population projections were produced by the Pew Research Center as part of the Pew-Templeton Global Religious Futures project, which analyzes religious change and its impact on societies around the world. Funding for the Global Religious Futures project comes from The Pew Charitable Trusts and the John Templeton Foundation.

Many staff members in the Pew Research Center’s Religion & Public Life project contributed to this effort. Conrad Hackett was the lead researcher and primary author of this report. Alan Cooperman served as lead editor. Anne Shi and Juan Carlos Esparza Ochoa made major contributions to data collection, storage and analysis. Bill Webster created the graphics and Stacy Rosenberg and Ben Wormald oversaw development of the interactive data presentations and the Global Religious Futures website. Sandra Stencel, Greg Smith, Michael Lipka and Aleksandra Sandstrom provided editorial assistance. The report was number-checked by Shi, Esparza Ochoa, Claire Gecewicz and Angelina Theodorou.

Several researchers in the Age and Cohort Change project of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis collaborated on the projections, providing invaluable expertise on advanced (“multistate”) population modeling and standardization of input data. Marcin Stonawski wrote the cutting-edge software used for these projections and led the collection and analysis of European data. Michaela Potančoková standardized the fertility data. Vegard Skirbekk coordinated IIASA’s research contributions. Additionally, Guy Abel at the Vienna Institute of Demography helped construct the country-level migration flow data used in the projections.

Over the past six years, a number of former Pew Research Center staff members also played critical roles in producing the population projections. Phillip Connor prepared the migration input data, wrote descriptions of migration results and methods, and helped write the chapters on each religious group and geographic region. Noble Kuriakose was involved in nearly all stages of the project and helped draft the chapter on demographic factors and the Methodology. Former intern Joseph Naylor helped design maps, and David McClendon, another former intern, helped research global patterns of religious switching. The original concept for this study was developed by Luis Lugo, former director of the Pew Research Center’s Religion & Public Life project, with assistance from former senior researcher Brian J. Grim and visiting senior research fellow Mehtab Karim.

Others at the Pew Research Center who provided editorial or research guidance include Michael Dimock, Claudia Deane, Scott Keeter, Jeffrey S. Passel and D’Vera Cohn. Communications support was provided by Katherine Ritchey and Russ Oates.

We also received very helpful advice and feedback on portions of this report from Nicholas Eberstadt, Henry Wendt Scholar in Political Economy, American Enterprise Institute; Roger Finke, Director of the Association of Religion Data Archives and Distinguished Professor of Sociology and Religious Studies, The Pennsylvania State University; Carl Haub, Senior Demographer, Population Reference Bureau; Todd Johnson, Associate Professor of Global Christianity and Director of the Center for the Study of Global Christianity, Gordon Conwell Theological Seminary; Ariela Keysar, Associate Research Professor and Associate Director of the Institute for the Study of Secularism in Society and Culture, Trinity College; Chaeyoon Lim, Associate Professor of Sociology, University of Wisconsin-Madison; Arland Thornton, Research Professor in the Population Studies Center, University of Michigan; Jenny Trinitapoli, Assistant Professor of Sociology, Demography and Religious Studies, The Pennsylvania State University; David Voas, Professor of Population Studies and Acting Director of the Institute for Social and Economic Research, University of Essex; Robert Wuthnow, Andlinger Professor of Sociology and Director of the Center for the Study of Religion, Princeton University; and Fenggang Yang, Professor of Sociology and Director of the Center on Religion and Chinese Society, Purdue University.

While the data collection and projection methodology were guided by our consultants and advisers, the Pew Research Center is solely responsible for the interpretation and reporting of the data.

Roadmap to the Report

The remainder of this report details the projections from multiple angles. The first chapter looks at the demographic factors that shape the projections, including sections on fertility rates, life expectancy, age structure, religious switching and migration. The next chapter details projections by religious group, with separate sections on Christians, Muslims, the religiously unaffiliated, Hindus, Buddhists, adherents of folk or traditional religions, members of “other religions” (consolidated into a single group) and Jews. A final chapter takes a region-by-region look at the projections, including separate sections on Asia and the Pacific, Europe, Latin America and the Caribbean, the Middle East and North Africa, North America and sub-Saharan Africa. (Pew Research Center, April 2, 2015)

Prêtre : le métier qui rend le plus heureux au monde !

C’est ce que révèle une étude américaine... au risque de bousculer quelques idées reçues.

Ce ne sont pas les métiers qui rapportent le plus qui rendent le plus heureux. Ni même ceux qui visent d’abord et avant tout à l’épanouissement personnel. C’est ce que révèle une étude américaine rapportée par le magazine Forbes. L’étude date de 2011. Mais, à l’occasion de la 52e Journée de prière pour les vocations (ce dimanche 26 avril 2015), elle vaut la peine d’être remise en lumière. Car, contre toute attente, le métier qui rend le plus heureux au monde serait… le sacerdoce.

En tête du Top 10

Selon cette étude, réalisée par l’Organisation nationale pour la recherche de l’université de Chicago, les prêtres seraient les plus à l’aise dans leur peau et leur ministère, avant les pompiers (80% de « très satisfaits »), les « physical therapists » (médecins, infirmiers, etc.) et les écrivains (qui font rarement fortune). Viennent ensuite, dans ce Top 10, les enseignants (contrairement à une idée reçue), les artistes (métier également rarement lucratif), les psychologues, les  vendeurs de produits ou services financiers (qui l’aurait cru ?) et pour finir, les ingénieurs d’exploitation (qui disent leur satisfaction de « jouer » avec de gros engins tels que des buldozzers, des chargeuses frontales, etc. – preuve, si besoin est, que l’homme est un grand enfant).

Une liste des 10 métiers les plus détestés

Forbes est un magazine économique américain, réputé pour ses listes, publiées régulièrement (comme « Les 400 grandes entreprises les plus performantes », « Les 100 plus grandes fortunes de Chine » ou « Les 100 femmes les plus puissantes du monde »…). À ce titre, il a publié (également) celle des 10 métiers les plus détestés. En tête : directeur de la technologie de l’information, directeur des ventes et du marketing, gestionnaire… Bref, des métiers qui font gagner (souvent) beaucoup d’argent mais qui, pour nombre de ceux qui les exercent (d’après l’enquête), ne permettent pas de donner un sens à sa vie.

Plus qu’un métier, une vocation

Reste que le sacerdoce est plus largement une vocation qu’un métier : si des études et une formation (y compris continue) sont requises, le prêtre, comme la mère de famille, fait plutôt deux temps pleins qu’un, prend rarement de congés (non payés) et gagne peu (d’argent)... Avec cette marque particulière propre au sacerdoce : on est prêtre in æternum, pour l’éternité. Si le sacerdoce est un métier, c’est donc bien le seul qui s’exercera dans l'Au-delà. Il n’aura alors aucune difficulté à rester en tête de cet – heureux – palmarès.  ( Aleteia, Elisabeth de Baudoin, 23 avril 2015)

L'action du Saint-Siège lors du génocide arménien

Le père George Ruyssen, jésuite belge, enseignant à l’Institut Pontifical oriental à Rome, est interrogé par Radio Vatican sur le contenu des archives du Saint-Siège concernant le génocide arménien. Extraits :

"Qu’est-ce qui s’est passé le 24 avril 1915 ? C’est une rafle, une déportation de 300 à 400 Arméniens de la capitale, donc de Constantinople et d’Istanbul qui ont été arrêtés et déportés vers l’intérieur de l’empire ottoman. Or, à ce moment-là, le jour-même, le délégué apostolique, Mgr Angelo Maria Dolci était informé de ces évènements puisque deux jours après, le 24 avril (c’est une lettre du 27 avril si je ne me trompe),  il envoie un rapport au Vatican en relatant cet évènement, cette rafle de 300-400 Arméniens déportés à l’intérieur de l’empire ottoman. Alors, petit à petit, le délégué apostolique vient recueillir d’autres informations. Il sera informé par les évêques arméniens eux-mêmes mais également par les missionnaires franciscains, dominicains et également jésuites qui étaient présents dans l’empire ottoman. Il va être informé, il va recueillir des rapports de ces gens qui sont des témoins oculaires de ce qui se passe aujourd’hui. Par exemple, à Mardin, il y a eu lieu ceci ou à Trébizonde, hier, il y a eu une déportation. Donc, ces personnes, ces religieux vont lui écrire des rapports dont il tiendra au courant le Vatican. Qu’est-ce que le Vatican a fait ? Et bien, le Pape a écrit deux fois au sultan ottoman, Mahomet V, qui était sultan à cette époque-là pour arrêter les massacres, pour dire «Voilà, je suis informé de ce qui se passe dans l’empire et je vous supplie d’arrêter ces massacres ». Alors, la première lettre du Pape Benoît XV est datée du 10 septembre 1915.

Alors, si vous me permettez, je peux citer un bout de cette lettre que j’ai ici devant moi « Majesté, tandis que le chagrin pour les horreurs de la lutte formidable dans laquelle, avec les grandes nations de l’Europe, se trouve engagé le puissant empire de votre majesté (l’empire ottoman) nous déchire l’âme l’écho très douloureux des gémissements d’un peuple entier, qui dans les vastes domaines des ottomans, est soumis à d’inénarrables souffrances arrivées jusqu’à nous. La nation arménienne a déjà vu beaucoup de ses fils envoyés à la mort, d’autres très nombreux jetés en prison ou envoyés en exil parmi lesquels plusieurs ecclésiastiques et même quelques évêques. Et maintenant, il nous est référé que des populations entières de villages et de villes sont contraintes d’abandonner leurs maisons pour se transférer au milieu de grandes plaines et de souffrances, en des lieux de concentration lointains ou en plus des douleurs morales, elles ont à supporter les privations de la plus noire misère et même des tortures de la faim. Nous croyons, Sire, que de tels excès ont lieu contre la volonté du gouvernement de votre majesté ». Il y a une autre lettre puisque les massacres vont continuer.

À la suite de la lettre du Pape, les massacres vont un peu se ralentir. Les choses vont un peu se calmer mais pas d’ordre à arrêter nettement les massacres. Les massacres vont continuer et c’est ce qui donnera lieu à une seconde lettre du Pape Benoît XV au même sultan, le sultan Mahomet V, qui est datée du 12 mars 1918. Et il y a une lettre qui, à mon avis, est méconnue (moi je ne la connaissais pas du tout), c’est une lettre que le Pape envoie trois jours avant la fin de la première Guerre Mondiale, c’est-à-dire le 8 novembre 1918, trois jours avant l’armistice du 11 novembre. Il envoie une lettre au président Wilson, le président des États-Unis où le Pape milite en faveur de l’indépendance de l’Arménie. Le Pape, dans une note du 1° aout 1917, fait allusion à cette note dans sa lettre. C’était une note en faveur de la paix. Benoît XV intervient à plusieurs reprises au cours de la première Guerre Mondiale en faveur de la paix. La note du 1°aout 1917 fait mention de différents points : l’échange de prisonniers de guerre, etc. Mais un des points, c’est l’indépendance de l’Arménie, c’est la création d’une Arménie indépendante. Ce sera d’ailleurs cette note de paix du 1° aout 1917 qui va inspirer directement les 14 points du président Wilson. Il présentera, après la 1°Guerre Mondiale, lors de la conférence de paix, ces 14 points qui sont inspirés par la note de paix du Pape Benoît XV.

Le Saint-Siège a donc bien-sûr travaillé, vous l’avez longuement évoqué, sur le plan diplomatique. Est-ce qu’on peut dire qu’il est intervenu à d’autres niveaux également ?

Au niveau humanitaire. L’effort du Saint-Siège n’est pas simplement un effort diplomatique politique mais également au niveau humanitaire. Il faut se rappeler qu’au cours de la première guerre mondiale, l’Unicef, le Haut Commissariat pour les Réfugiés, ces organisations internationales n’existaient pas à l’époque. Lors de la première guerre mondiale, qu’est-ce qui existait ? La Croix-Rouge et puis, l’Église catholique, également les protestants. L’Église catholique et le Pape se sont investis sur le plan humanitaire en envoyant des sommes d’argent pour les réfugiés, les rescapés, les orphelins. Et c’est un point malheureusement peu connu. Par initiative du délégué apostolique, Mgr Angelo Maria Dolci (son surnom est l’ange des Arméniens), le Pape fonde un orphelinat  « Benoît XV » pour les orphelins arméniens à Constantinople. Et ces orphelins sont ensuite venus en Italie. Et où sont-ils venus en Italie ? Ils ont été hébergés au palais pontifical à Castel Gandolfo. Ces orphelins sont restés là à peu près un an. Ils étaient hébergés par le Pape lui-même avant d’être transféré à Turin. [...]"

Le Vatican, cible des islamistes

La police italienne a annoncé ce matin avoir démantelé un réseau islamiste basé en Sardaigne et ordonné l'arrestation de 18 personnes, dont deux anciens gardes du corps de Ben Laden. Mario Carta, responsable des services de renseignement à Cagliari en Sardaigne, a précisé que des écoutes téléphoniques avaient conduit les enquêteurs à prendre au sérieux ce projet d'attentat sur la base de conversations évoquant la "via della Conciliazione", la principale rue qui conduit au Vatican.

Ces 18 personnes, accusées notamment d'avoir participé à des activités terroristes au Pakistan, sont accusées d'appartenance à "une organisation dédiée aux activités criminelles transnationales s'inspirant d'Al-Qaïda et à d'autres organisations radicales prônant la lutte armée contre l'Occident et l'insurrection contre l'actuel gouvernement du Pakistan".

Certains de ces islamistes sont accusés d'avoir planifié, financé et même participé à des actes terroristes au Pakistan, dont l'attentat sur le marché Meena Bazar de Peshawar en octobre 2009 qui avait fait plus de 100 morts. Ils sont aussi soupçonnés d'être impliqués dans un trafic d'immigrants clandestins.

L'organisation aurait eu en Italie comme chef principal un imam (pas d'amalgame !), du mouvement "Tabligh Eddawa", installé en Lombardie (nord), qui se servait de son autorité religieuse et de son prestige pour récolter des fonds.

Preghiera di Sant'Antonio

 

Tu, stella del mare, illumina i tuoi figli travolti da questo tempestoso mare del peccato; facci giungere al porto sicuro del perdono e, lieti della tua protezione, possiamo portare a compimento la nostra vita. (Sant’Antonio)

25 aprile: San Marco

La storia di Marco (di Giovanni, suo nome ebraico, detto Marco, nome latino; cf. Act. 12, 12) è interessantissima; s’intreccia forse con quella di Gesù, nell’episodio del ragazzo che, nella notte della cattura di Lui nell’orto degli ulivi, lo seguiva, dopo la fuga dei discepoli, coperto da un lenzuolo - per curiosità? per devozione? - ma quando coloro che avevano arrestato Gesù, fecero per afferrarlo, il ragazzo lasciò loro nelle mani il lenzuolo, e sgusciò via da loro (Marc. 14, 52). Ma soprattutto la storia di Marco si fonde con quella degli Apostoli: Paolo e Barnaba, specialmente, che egli segue a Cipro nella prima spedizione apostolica (era cugino di Barnaba), e che poi, forse stanco, forse impaurito, giunto a Perge, nella Pamfilia, egli abbandona per ritornarsene solo da sua madre, a Gerusalemme (Act. 13, 13). Paolo ne fu addolorato; tanto che non lo volle compagno, tre o quattro anni dopo, nel secondo viaggio, nonostante che Barnaba intercedesse; così che Barnaba e Marco lasciarono Paolo con Sila per navigare a Cipro (Act. 15, 37-40). Ma poi Paolo deve aver perdonato a Marco la sua prima infedeltà nella fatica apostolica, perché tre volte lo nomina amorevolmente nelle sue lettere (Philem. 24; Col. 4, 10; 2 Tim. 4, 11).

Secondo un’antichissima testimonianza del secondo secolo, quella di Papia, riportata da Eusebio nella sua Storia della Chiesa (III, 39, 15), Marco «era stato l’interprete di Pietro».

E dei rapporti fra l’apostolo Pietro e Marco, poco sappiamo; ma ci basta qui far nostra la conclusione della tradizione e degli studi moderni: il Vangelo di San Marco è una riproduzione scritta della catechesi narrativa dell’apostolo Pietro a Roma; esso riflette, senza intenti letterari, ma con grande semplicità e vivezza di particolari, i racconti di S. Pietro circa le memorie di lui; la sua documentazione è principalmente, se non la sola, la parola stessa dell’Apostolo, riportata come la relazione genuina d’un testimonio oculare, che conserva di Gesù la più immediata impressione.

Perciò San Marco ci ha lasciato in brevi pagine disadorne e non sempre ordinate, ma estremamente sincere e vive, l’immagine di Cristo, come San Pietro la ricordava e la portava scolpita nella semplicità fedele, umile ed entusiasta del suo cuore, realisticamente. Ecco perché ci è caro San Marco: egli ci riporta il profilo di Cristo, nello sfondo del disegno sinottico primitivo (cf. Vannutelli), visto da San Pietro. E San Pietro, offrendoci la visione sensibile e scenica di Cristo, c’introduce alla conoscenza di Cristo quale veramente è; una conoscenza che solo la fede in qualche modo può afferrare e penetrare.

Poco altro sappiamo di San Marco; da Roma egli si recò in Egitto e fu il fondatore riconosciuto della Chiesa di Alessandria; le sue reliquie, Venezia gloriosa e devota le custodisce; ma il suo Vangelo di qua soprattutto rifulge, dove Pietro e Paolo, suoi maestri, fecero di Marco l’Evangelista contrassegnato dal simbolo del leone. (Papa Paolo VI)

Giaculatoria del giorno

 

Tu, che hai conservato in cuore le meraviglie operate da Dio, fa che accogliamo la Buona Novella per renderle testimonianza ovunque. Madre Santa, aiutaci a vivere di Cristo e ad essere sempre ed ovunque portatori d'unità e pace.

Y a-t-il une vie spirituelle à l’ère d’Internet ?

D’un côté, les cours de latin-grec. De l’autre, les prêtres. Les rapprocher serait incongru, penserez-vous… Il existe pourtant des similitudes étonnantes. Aux yeux de notre société ultra-connectée et marchande, tous deux semblent devenus dérangeants. Des étrangetés. Car, en apparence, ils ne servent à rien, ne produisent rien qui puisse être vendu, ou réduit à un slogan. Au point que l’Éducation nationale envisage sérieusement de supprimer les cours de langues « mortes » au profit de l’anglais. Et que l’esprit du temps souhaite à tout prix marier les prêtres, pour qu’ils soient enfin comme tout le monde ! Voilà qui résoudrait, croit-on encore, la crise des vocations…

Sauf que, de l’autre côté de l’Atlantique, où la liberté de l’enseignement prévaut, les latinistes et hellénistes les plus doués sont des recrues de choix à Harvard, pour leur non-conformisme intellectuel : plus imaginatifs et affranchis de la logique binaire. « L’originalité est un retour aux sources », disait déjà Gustave Thibon.

Toujours aux États-Unis, l’Église assiste à un réveil surprenant des vocations sacerdotales, avec leur radicalité d’une vie totalement donnée. En 2015, les ordinations devraient faire un bond de 25 % par rapport à l’an dernier ! Paradoxe : c’est aussi le pays qui a été le plus affecté par la crise des abus sexuels.

Le pays du libéralisme, y compris moral, pionnier de l’économie numérique et champion de la surconsommation, aurait-il développé, dans sa démesure, les anticorps nécessaires à la survie d’une certaine idée de l’homme ? « Là où croît le péril, croît aussi ce qui sauve », affirme le poète Hölderlin.

Ce qui est en jeu, c’est de préserver la dimension de l’homme la plus niée aujourd’hui : la vie de l’esprit, nourrie par la culture et la foi. La question n’est donc pas celle du progrès, mais du progrès sans âme. Ce que réalise Internet, c’est une capacité inégalée à toucher une multitude en un temps record. Mais ce qui est gagné en surface ne doit pas être perdu en profondeur. Il faudra toujours du temps à l’esprit humain pour assimiler des connaissances, les intérioriser, et en faire une mémoire vécue, ayant sens et profondeur. C’est ici qu’interviennent le latin et le grec, langues chargées d’histoire. De notre histoire. En les supprimant, ce sont nos racines que l’on arracherait.

Ce qui est gagné en surface ne doit pas être perdu en profondeur.

En revanche, là où le prêtre se montre supérieur au latin, c’est qu’il ne se contente pas de raviver notre mémoire. À travers les siècles, il nous ramène à la source créatrice. Par l’eucharistie, il nous met au contact avec la parole divine, dans sa fraîcheur toujours nouvelle. Voilà sans doute pourquoi un évêque, saint Isidore, est le saint patron des internautes. Au VIIe siècle, il a réuni un savoir encyclopédique. Mais il affirmait que « tout progrès vient de la lecture et de la méditation. Car la prière nous purifie, la lecture nous instruit ». (Famille Chrétienne, 21/04/2015, Aymeric Pourbaix)